BIST100 holds steady amid investor speculations for 2024 targets

The BIST100 index remains at a critical level of 9040, indicating the 50-day average. While many stocks remain distant from peak levels, last month saw the portfolios of 11,544 investors decline below ₺1 million ($31,280). Investors intensify searches for the "2024 stock market target price" as private investment firm Tera forecasts 13,252 for the BIST100 by year-end in a published report.

The BIST100 index in Borsa Istanbul continues its "sawtooth market" trend, characterized by a back-and-forth movement. Over approximately six weeks, the index has fluctuated between 9450 and 8700. However, significant disparities in pricing are noted in many stocks, which trail far behind their peak levels. In a market where sector and stock differentials are distinctly observed, trading on April 2 closed at 9040 points, marking a 1.27% decline.

Stocks with inflows and outflows

During Tuesday's trading, the BIST100 index saw a transaction volume of ₺105 billion. Agrotech High Technology and Investment emerged as the top gainer with an 8.48% increase, while Eregli Iron and Steel  (Erdemir) drew attention as the top loser with a 5.81% decline. Haci Omer Sabanci Holding, Yapi Kredi Bank, Akbank, Isbank, and BIM were among the top five stocks in terms of inflows. Turkish Airlines, Erdemir, Tofas, Koc Holding and Turkiye Petrol Refineries, on the other hand, stood out as stocks contributing negatively to the index with the highest outflows.

Attention to the 50-day average

As of the closing on April 2, the BIST100 index remained below both the five-day (9133) and 22-day (9095) moving averages. The critical support for the stock market is closely monitored at the 9040 level, where the 50-day moving average is situated. While the latest closing occurred at this level, maintaining the 50-day average in Wednesday's trading holds significance. High-interest rate pressures dominate many sectors, particularly the industrial sector, in the stock market. Rising interest rates concurrently lead to a decrease in margin trading volume and a shift of investors from stocks to deposits.

BIST100 2024 target

Expectation reports for the stock market continue to emerge post-election. In the April 2024 Strategy Report published by Tera, it was forecasted that BIST100 stocks, trading at a 6.2 multiplier based on profitability, could reach a year-end estimated price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0. The report suggests a potential level of 13252 for the BIST100, indicating a 45% potential increase.

Highlighted stocks

During this period, Tera favored Anadolu Group Holding, Akfen Renewable Energy, Alarko Holding, BIM, Ford Otosan, Is Bank, Mavi, Sabanci Holding, Turkcell, Turkish Airlines, Türkiye Sigorta, and Yapi Kredi Bank among its preferred stocks. Meanwhile, the institution listed higher-than-expected inflation, potential policy changes, low foreign inflows, and global economic and geopolitical tensions as risks to this scenario.

Source: Newsroom