Following the inflation data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute, the policy rate to be announced by the Central Bank of Türkiye on Thursday is eagerly awaited. In this process, two world-renowned banks updated their forecasts for Türkiye, Bloomberg reported.
London-based HSBC bank raised its inflation forecast for Türkiye by 4 points, while United States investment bank JP Morgan increased its inflation expectation by three points and raised its interest rate expectation to 45 points.
According to the news in Bloomberg, US investment bank JP Morgan increased its year-end inflation forecast in Türkiye from 62 percent to 65 percent. Morgan noted that he expects inflation to peak at 73 percent in May 2024.
The Central Bank exceeded expectations in August and raised the policy rate by 750 basis points to 25 percent. Stating that they see risks for the current policy rate, JP Morgan increased its policy rate expectation for 2024 from 40 percent to 45 percent.
"After the upward surprise in the inflation data announced today, we raise our forecasts and expect inflation to be close to 70 percent at the end of 2023,” HSBC economist Melis Metiner said in the evaluation dated September 4.
In the note, the inflation forecast for the last quarter, which was previously announced as 62.4 percent, was increased to 68 percent. "The data may also lead the Central Bank to make another higher-than-usual interest rate hike at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 21," the note said, predicting that the policy rate could be raised to 30 percent this month instead of 27.5 percent.
According to the note, HSBC's 4th quarter policy rate forecast was left at 30 percent.