IMF raises global growth outlook, holds firm on Türkiye's forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global growth forecast while keeping Türkiye's growth projections 2024 unchanged.

In its World Economic Outlook report released today, the IMF revised its global growth forecast for 2024 from the 3.1% announced in January to 3.2% while maintaining Türkiye's forecast for 2024 at 3.1%.

The upward revision in the IMF's 2024 global growth forecast is primarily attributed to the upward revision in the U.S. economic outlook.

The IMF expects economic activity in Türkiye to strengthen in the second half of 2024, as monetary tightening ends and consumption begins to recover.

For Türkiye, the IMF forecasts that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will average 59.5% in 2024 and 38.4% in 2025.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters, "We continue to see the global economy remaining quite resilient," adding that many countries have not fallen into recession as previously anticipated because of central banks raising interest rates to combat inflation.

The report noted that many countries have suffered less "scarring" from the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation crises, returning to pre-pandemic production levels faster than expected.

Gourinchas highlighted that while inflation has decreased, progress in reaching central banks' targets has slowed in recent months, with recent data indicating strong demand in the U.S.

Given stronger-than-expected employment and consumer spending in late 2023 and 2024, the IMF raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy from 2.1% in January to 2.7%.

However, it expects economic growth to decline to 1.9% in 2025 because of the delayed impact of tight monetary and fiscal policies.

The IMF kept China's 2024 growth forecast at 4.6% and its 2025 forecast at 4.1%. China's economy grew by 5.2% in 2023.

The IMF warned that without a comprehensive restructuring package for the troubled real estate sector, domestic demand in China will continue to decline, further deteriorating the country's economic outlook.

Source: Newsroom