Real Sector Confidence Index surges to 104.4 points in March

The Real Sector Confidence Index increased by 2.9 points in March compared to the previous month, reaching 104.4.

The Economic Direction Statistics and Real Sector Confidence Index for March were announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).

The results of the Economic Direction Survey were evaluated by weighting and aggregating the responses of 1731 establishments operating in the manufacturing industry.

Accordingly, the Real Sector Confidence Index increased by 2.9 points in March compared to the previous month, reaching 104.4 levels. During the same period, the seasonally adjusted real sector confidence index increased by 1.5 points to 103.5.

Optimism prevails for future metrics

Upon analyzing the diffusion indices of the survey questions forming the index, it was found that assessments regarding future production volume, export order quantity for the next three months, total order quantity in the preceding three months, overall market trend, and projections for total employment in the upcoming three months all positively influenced the index. 

Conversely, evaluations concerning current total order quantity, existing inventory of finished goods, and anticipated fixed capital investment expenditure exerted a negative influence on the index.

In the evaluations for the last three months, the trend in favor of those reporting a decrease in production volume shifted in favor of those reporting an increase.

While the trend in favor of those reporting a decrease in domestic market order quantity strengthened compared to the previous month, the trend in favor of those reporting a decrease in export order quantity weakened compared to the previous month.

The evaluations indicating that the current total orders are below seasonal norms and the evaluations indicating that the current finished goods inventory level is above seasonal norms strengthened compared to the previous month.

In the evaluations for the next three months, the trend in favor of those expecting an increase in production volume, export order quantity, and domestic market order quantity gained strength compared to the previous month.

While the expectations for an increase in fixed capital investment expenditure in the next twelve months weakened compared to the previous month, the expectations for an increase in employment in the next three months strengthened.

PPI expectation declined to 54.5%

Regarding average unit costs, the trend in favor of those expecting an increase in the next three months strengthened, while the trend in favor of those reporting an increase in the last three months weakened.

Expectations for an increase in selling prices in the next three months also weakened, while the annual PPI expectation for the end of the next 12-month period decreased by 0.2 points to 54.5% compared to the previous month.

Regarding the general trend in the industry branch it belongs to, while the proportion of those stating it remained the same compared to the previous month decreased to 76.9%, and the proportion of those stating it became more pessimistic decreased to 16%, the proportion of those stating it became more optimistic increased to 7.1%.

Source: Newsroom