Seismic expert warns of impending earthquake in Istanbul after Bursa fault discovery

The recent discovery of a 95-kilometer-long fault line near Bursa has reignited concerns about a significant impending earthquake in Istanbul and the Marmara region.

Addressing the issue, Earthquake expert professor Dr. Sukru Ersoy asserted that a significant seismic event in the area is more imminent than previously anticipated.

"After the destructive Feb.6, 2023 earthquakes in Kahramanmaras, the likelihood of a major earthquake in Marmara and Istanbul has become a critical concern," professor Dr. Ersoy said in a recent broadcast.

He explained that Bursa's newly identified fault line seriously threatens significant earthquakes.

Professor Dr. Ersoy stressed the significance of the North Anatolian Fault Line, which extends 1500 kilometers (932.0 miles) from Bingol Karliova across the Marmara Sea to Saroz Gulf.

"While we have been focusing on the northern branch of this fault line, we must not overlook the southern branches extending from Gemlik Bay toward Canakkale," he stated, pointing to areas historically prone to severe earthquakes.

Professor Dr. Ersoy discussed the new Bursa fault, revealing: "We discovered this fault line between Yenisehir and Kayapa in a joint study with three universities and Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD). We are now conducting a comprehensive study on 128 fault segments across Türkiye to understand their earthquake recurrence intervals."

Responding to inquiries about the timeline of a major Istanbul or Marmara earthquake, professor Dr. Ersoy affirmed: "Given the filled seismic energy in the fault's northern branch, a large-scale earthquake is likely soon, and certainly within the next century. We expect it to exceed a magnitude of 7."

This forecast puts several Turkish regions, including the Aegean area, on high alert for potential earthquakes.

In addition, professor Dr. Ersoy addressed the potential aftershocks of the Feb. 6 earthquake, saying: "While a massive earthquake along the 300 kilometers line from Hatay to Kahramanmaras is not immediately expected, neighboring areas like Malatya and north of Adana are at risk due to stress transfer."

Given Istanbul's dense population and its importance as a cultural and economic hub, this warning is significant for both locals and the expat community.

Source: Newsroom